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Abernathy Strategies
RepublicanGazette
Monday, March 3, 2008 "When news breaks, we fix it" Published daily except some days
Submissions welcome
The Republican Gazette welcomes Emails to the Editor and press releases. All submitted items must include the name and contact information for the author of the article, and all articles will only be published with the author's name included. Thank you for reading and participating in The Republican Gazette, another of West Virginia's most biased publications.
All opinions are those of The Republican Gazette and its editor, Gary Abernathy, except letters or commentary signed by others, and do not reflect the views of anyone else, including clients of Abernathy Strategies.
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Having Fun With Mojo
Hey kids! Mojo here! Don't be confused by someone telling you I'm not as popular as I used to be! The "Demo Memo" was clear -- people love me, and I would beat anyone in any election! Who paid for the poll? What do the rest of the numbers say? How were the questions worded? Why do you worry about such things? Get on the bandwagon! Don't ask, just get on board!
Chelsea in
Charleston: Why, really?
Flying to Charleston
to drive to Parkersburg
doesn't make much
sense; local meeting to
discuss mom's race a
more likely scenario
When the news broke more than a day after the fact that Chelsea Clinton had been to Charleston on Wednesday (her birthday) and dined late at the Bridge Street Bistro, more than one observer questioned the official explanation of her presence. The official version, as reported in Friday's Charleston Daily Mail:Clinton flew into Yeager Airport and stopped for dinner on her way to Parkersburg to stay with her mother, who was campaigning in Pomeroy, Ohio, on Wednesday, said the bistro's general manager Amy Sue Gates.Earlier on Wednesday, Clinton's assistant called the restaurant to make reservations, saying that five people recommended the bistro. The story goes on to note that Chelsea arrived at the restaurant around 9:30 p.m. "and stayed two hours." Did she really then hit the road at 11:30 p.m. for the drive to Parkersburg? Dining with Clinton, according to the story, were Bari Lurie, chief of staff for Sen. Clinton's presidential campaign, and Philippe Reines, senior adviser at Sen. Clinton's New York office. So Hillary is fighting for her political life in Ohio, but her campaign chief of staff and senior advisor are hanging around Charleston for a leisurely dinner and drive with Chelsea?And why not fly directly to Parkersburg Airport? That airport can handle private jets, continues to be served by United Express (under the federal government's Essential Air Service program), and also has a helipad.Gov. Joe Manchin was reportedly back from his Washington D.C. adventures by Wednesday, and it's difficult to believe that he (and other Democrat officials) were in Charleston on the same night as Chelsea and did not hold a meeting to discuss the Clinton campaign, especially with such heavy hitters from the campaign in tow with Chelsea.There's nothing wrong with Chelsea coming to Charleston, or dining at the Bridge Street Bistro, which is a great place to eat. But the official story as to why she was there doesn't add up. Seriousy -- Chelsea Clinton flew to Charleston and the state Democratic Party and the governor ignored her? They didn't know she was coming? Common sense says we've only heard part of the story -- and not the interesting part.CHELSEA CLINTON
New Manchin job rating full of holes
Mojo's approval likely at 55%, not 71% as touted by Democrats
West Virginia voters..."
But in the very next paragraph, the memo says, "Fully 55% of West Virginia voters say Joe Manchin is doing an 'excellent' or 'good' job as Governor. Just 9% believe Manchin is doing a 'poor' job."The memo and the polling claims make no sense. It is unclear if the Democrats are somehow differentiating between a "personal" approval rating and a "job" approval rating. It is not explained what the phrase "is viewed favorably" means. Either way, what is clear is that the Democrats did not release the actual polling data -- they simply put out the "Demo Memo" and asked everyone to take their word for it.Also, in regard to the job approval rating, the one category the Democrats don't mention is the "fair" category. A poll like this typically would list four choices -- excellent, good, fair and poor. The Dems tell us the results of "excellent," "good" and "poor," but they omit the results for "fair," which obviously adds up to 36% (or close, allowing for some "no opinions"), since the other three categories they do announce add up to 64%.In other words, even if the Dems are to be believed, Manchin currently has a job approval rating of 55% ("excellent" and "good" added together), and a disapproval rating of 45% ("fair" and "poor" combined) -- a steep drop from the heady days when his approval rating hovered around 80%.It has apparently been well over a year since approval ratings have been measured or released for the governor, and the Democrats are now struggling to put a good spin on what is obviously a huge reversal from his previous fortunes.Further, the "Demo Memo" says the poll was taken by the Global Strategy Group. This is the same company that Manchin has long used, and it was also utilized by Jim Lees in his 2006 State Senate race against Mike Hall.During that campaign, Lees put out a press release in August 2006 claiming his Global Strategy Group poll showed him with a 42%-32% lead over Hall, as well as enjoying a 53%-36% advantage in name I.D. across the 4th Senate District. Hall won the election, 52%-48%, meaning the poll was actually a push poll (as the Hall campaign claimed at the time), or else Hall added 20 points to his numbers over the last three months of the campaign. (As a consultant for Hall in that race, I would love to claim the latter, but the fact is the poll was simply full of errors when Lees released it.)Apparently, the Global Strategy Group seems to provide its clients with ego-stroking numbers (its clients include John Edwards, who was probably given poll numbers telling him he had a shot versus Hillary or Barack), and it has likely done so again for the governor as he comes to the end of a legislative session where his own party thumbed its nose at a large portion of his legislative agenda.It is not made clear who actually commissioned the poll. Nor do we know how the questions were asked, or how deeply the poll delved into issues or demographics. The "Demo Memo" doesn't tell us. It just says it was conducted between Feb. 22-26 and is based on interviews with 610 likely voters. One news report said the poll was conducted "independently" of Manchin, but again, the firm lists Manchin as a client.When politicians have polls that are truly accurate and favorable, they do not hesitate to release at least portions of actual polling data to the public. The fact that did not happen in this case, and that the data was run through the spin cycle and released only in truncated "Demo Memo" form, likely means the gov has plenty to be concerned about.Gov. Manchin
job approval
Excellent,
good55%
55%Fair,
poor45%
45%On Friday, the West Virginia Democratic Party sent to the media a "Demo Memo" claiming that a new poll shows Gov. Joe Manchin "is viewed favorably by 71% ofLetting Cliff Moore on ballot is right, but not just for Dems
When a circuit judge ruled last week that Democrat Delegate Cliff Moore should be allowed on the ballot in spite of the fact he failed to have his candidacy form notarized, it was the right decision.Throughout the years, courts outside of West Virginia have typically ruled that "technical errors" are not enough to keep a candidate off the ballot. Unfortunately, West Virginia courts almost always ruled the other way when Republicans are involved.Back in 2002, after the filing deadline, Eastern Panhandle Republican Ted Bostic was appointed by the 16th District Republican Senate Committee to run against Democrat John Unger. But a circuit judge ruled the appointment was invalid, because rather than meet in person, the committee had conducted its business by telephone.Clearly, the wishes of the committee were clear, the candidate himself wanted to run, and everything else -- forms, etc. -- were in order. But the judge hung his ruling on the technical point that a physical meeting of the committee had not occurred.Courts should almost always rule in favor of placing candidates on the ballot when the only precluding factor is a technical detail. Unfortunately, in West Virginia, only Democrats seem to get the benefit of the doubt.Full house of GOP candidates on hand for training
A packed room filled with Republican candidates and volunteers ushered in the first candidate training seminar of the 2008 campaign, organized by the West Virginia Republican Club.The session took place Saturday at WVGOP headquarters in South Charleston. Those offering remarks or training tips included Delegates Tim Armstead, Mitch Carmichael, Kelli Sobonya, Larry Border and Craig Blair, Sen. Vic Sprouse, GOP consultant Gary Abernathy, campaign finance specialist Pam Stevens, Washington media consultant Tony Marsh, and club officials Lisa Peana and Charles Bolen.
Others who stopped by or attended part of the session included GOP Chairman Doug McKinney, and statewide candidates Beth Walker (Supreme Court), Dan Greear (Attorney General) and Charles Minimah (Secretary of State).Candidates for the House of Delegates and State Senate received training in fundraising, marketing, media relations, grassroots organizing, and other specialties.